CHALKBOARD: Welcome to Chalkboard on mobile for traders high-end devices:

May 14, 2012, Monday, 3:18p: Heads Up: The afternoon model-run will change the BLI -short-term forecast- to negative ahead of the close; data continues to show the U.S. stock market, as well as global markets, degrading; although this change may last short-term, chances are increasing that this negative ness could carry over to the summer months with a possibility to turn even worse during the last quarter of the year.

April 4, 2012, Wednesday, 2:43p: Heads Up: Afternoon model will change the BLI- short-term forecast- to neutral ahead of the close; data continues to show the U.S. stock market, as well as global markets, degrading; some stocks have turned the first leg of reversal, indicating that this is a direction change; several days of positive ness possibly can be expected at some point before the pullback/ correction gets underway.

March 23, 2012, Friday, 3:16p: Heads Up: Afternoon model will change the BLI- short-term forecast- to positive ahead of the close.

March 20, 2012, Tuesday, 10:09a: Heads Up: Morning model run would have upgraded the BLI- short-term forecast- to positive from neutral as conditions continue to show more positive upside for stocks for the near-term. Models see this pullback, Tuesday, as a short correction that could return to the unchanged line later today. Models will be on the lookout for that move to upgrade the BLI.

February 28, 2012, Tuesday, 9:29a: Heads Up: Model data suggest S&P 500 is days away from selling off. Chance of the S&P 500 moving lower, no later than early next week, are high. Data suggest a two week pullback before the S&P 500 regains momentum for a run higher into May.

February 23, 2012, Thursday, 3:20p: The Market Barometer afternoon model run will change the BLI, short-term forecast, indicator to neutral. The S&P 500 continues to slow and the Barometer models increase the chance that the stock market will begin a pullback if these condition continue.

February 22, 2012, Wednesday, 10:07p: Heads up. Evening model shows trouble for the S&P 500. The close below 1360 today caused a model watch for tomorrow. The new support level is 1365. If the S&P 500, for a substantial time (intra session), moves below this new key level, it will cause a downgrade to neutral. A downgrade to neutral means chances are building that a pullback, possibly substantial pullback, is imminent.

February 22, 2012, Wednesday, 11:32a: Heads up. An S&P 500 close below 1360 could cause a problem. Depending how far below would/ could trigger a short-term forecast (BLI) downgrade to neutral.

February 4, 2012, Saturday, 10:05a: Heads up. Saturday morning model indicates a CHANCE that this latest leg-up, started Friday, COULD last to around week of March 5, 2012. If next week continues the push higher, watch for the long-term forecast to change to positive. The Bias would go first.

February 3, 2012, Friday, 2:54p: Great jobs number rallies the S&P 500; afternoon model will change the BLI back to positive; next week expect this might go back to slow trading at which time we could be back in the same situation.

February 2, 2012, Thursday, 10:05p: Evening model run will change the BLI, the short-term forecast, to neutral from positive. The model has detected a possible turn in the stock market that could breach the Barometer 1315.38 (S&P 500 closing value) support either Friday or early next week. This particular instance could be a false indication but the model will downgrade the BLI tonight to neutral and reverse it if this indication doesn't pan out over Fridays close. Tuesdays alert of 1308 is now tomorrows 1315.38, that is, This Barometer support [areas] is a rolling support, not permanent area like other more normal supports. This type support (rolling) is used for early warning. If this support is breached, for more than a couple of session, it normally means a quick change to negative for the short-term forecast can be expected.

January 31, 2012, Tuesday, 9:42p: Barometer models indicate a close, of the S&P 500, at or below 1308 would trigger the BLI to change to neutral. The BLI, short term forecast indicator, remains at positive until a close at or below 1308 occurs. A significant move below 1308 intraday could cause the short term forecast to downgrade to neutral. The BLI has been positive for 24 consecutive sessions including Tuesday.

January 10, 2012, Tuesday, 12:29p: No real discernable activity in the models for the long term forecast. Could be coming up to some changes soon if we continue out of the trading-range. The BLI positive shows we are going in the right direction. Stay tuned for changes if this bullishness continues.

November 21, 2011, Monday, 2:50p: The afternoon model-run will downgrade the forecast-bias to neutral. It's pretty clear that Eurozone default issues will continue as is and that the super committee probably wont be able to do a deal by midnight tonight. Equities are trying to make a comeback this afternoon but its probably to late as volatility has picked up and during holiday week it is expected to be light volume which would allow trades to get out of hand in both directions. A Bias downgrade to neutral would mean conditions continue to degrade and further bias downgrade could and would lead to a forecast downgrade. A forecast downgrade at this juncture would mean the U.S. stock market could be in for a long protracted decline.

November 21, 2011, Monday, 7:46a: Models were mostly ready to downgrade last week and with a very negative outlook for Monday, it's not going to take much to get a Forecast-Bias downgrade to caution today. Even if stocks turnaround, it could be to late to stop the downgrade as the S&P 500 appears to want to reoccupy the Summer trading range.

November 2, 2011, Wednesday, 10:02p: Evening model suggest that the casual suggestion of a QE3 might be validated by one or the other event; the U.S. economy (GDP and jobs) worsens such that it calls for an easing intervention by the Fed; the Greece situation with the referendum is executed and the democratic process rejects the rescue package. The last case could be very troublesome for the global markets as chances are high that Greece would lose the Euro and the possible panic of the situation could cause U.S. economic situation to worsen. It's highly unlikely that there will be need for QE3 but models see this as a precaution.

October 27, 2011, Thursday, 3:22p: The afternoon model run will change the BLI to positive. A BLI (Barometer Leading Indicator) of positive signals a turn from the recent mostly bearish tone, over the summer, to a more bullish outlook. Upgrade of the BLI doesn't necessarily signal an imminent forecast change.

October 25, 2011, Tuesday, 2:44p: Model data suggest a drop back to S&P 500 1200-1225 is possible before the market can continue higher. Of course it all depends on what happens tomorrow with the EU rescue package detail. The BLI will not be upgraded at this time.

October 24, 2011, Monday, 10:51p: Evening model run indicates a chance of the BLI indicator to be upgraded to positive tomorrow if the session is no less than neutral. The BLI is a forward indicator and a move to positive would indicate that this latest rally out of the S&P 500 range is for real. A capitulation is still viable to retest certain S&P 500 support. This is only a BLI change, this change may or may not indicate an imminent forecast change to positive.

October 14, 2011, Friday, 2:56p: The Afternoon model will change the Barometer Forecast to caution. Models are detecting a change in trading, a more calmer trading atmosphere, that could last long enough to break out of the S&P 1220 trading range top.

October 13, Thursday, 3:40p: Heads-up... Model is not there yet. Stocks could go either way this afternoon, so it will be heads-up for tomorrow to where this market may be going.

October 12, Wednesday, 11:31p: Heads-up... Evening model run indicates a forecast change to caution from negative Thursday if Thursday can eke out at least a neutral session. Data suggest we could break out of the trading range either totally disregarding a capitulation or saving it for after earnings session.

October 11, Tuesday, 2:22p: Afternoon model is changing the forecast bias to positive. Model data continues to show an improvement in traders to stay with positions as Europe debt issues seem to be easing concerns. The S&P 500 is at the upper range and could continue to test the area. If the indexes can end moderately, that would be a good sign going forward, at least until Alcoa's forecast.

October 11, Tuesday, 10:54a: Excellent chance that the forecast bias will turn positive today if the market holds together. The forecast could be next to be upgraded to caution.

October 6, Thursday, 11:51p: Evening model run indicates a good chance of a forecast-bias upgrade to positive. This would be in preparation for a forecast change to caution which could come quickly depending on how Friday turns out. Obviously the reaction in the markets to the jobs report will be key in the open and post-open model runs.

October 4, Tuesday, 10:27p: Models are mostly at a standstill as the trading range continues. Models are now looking at S&P 500 1090 and 1220 close as breakout. If the index doesn't fall through 1090, on the close, into Bear territory, we could see upside to Alcoa earnings; then up and down depending on how the season goes with a sell off after earnings season. Alcoa outlook will be extremely important.

September 16, Friday, 3:28p: It's to iffy. Models are on the verge to upgrade the Forecast but data suggest next week for another try. The S&P 500 could fall going to the close.

September 15, Thursday, 10:40p: What a model draught. We have 4 in a row and the S&P 500 is above 1200. Evening model run shows a chance of a forecast change from negative to caution IF Friday is neutral to positive. But don't look for it until near the close. So what's up. Models show two scenarios. 1) We go higher from Thursday's post. 2) We take a big dip, do a V and then go higher. Watch the forecast as the draught may be coming to an end. Bernanke is up next week and earnings could kick this market higher.

August 31, Wednesday, 12:19p: Midday model run will change the BLI to neutral. The Barometer Leading Indicator is an advance indicator of market direction turn. The neutral move from negative indicates sufficient improvement [in the markets] that could lead to a reversal in market direction. Currently market direction is negative but improving.

August 29, Monday, 2:33p: Mid afternoon model will change the Bias- short-term forecast to neutral from negative.

August 29, Monday, 12:31p: Market is looking up. Expect Bias- short term forecast to go neutral this afternoon.

August 19, Friday, 3:25p: Pre close model will change the Bias to negative; expect further sharp drop in the last half-hour.

August 18, Thursday, 12:31p: Short-term forecast (forecast Bias) looks real iffy. Bad day Friday we could see another leg down for the S&P 500. Models indicate a good chance that will happen Friday.

August 15, Monday, 11:55a: Morning model run indicates a short term positive ness around the stock market. Midday model could move the Forecast Bias to neutral. A neutral Forecast Bias indicates a strengthening of the market as volatility settles down.

August 10, Wednesday, 10:09a: Morning model run indicates further downside risk for the S&P 500. The BLI indicator sole purpose is to determine market direction change. The indicator will be downgraded by the model this morning which indicates a high probability that today's sell off is for real and that the S&P 500 needs to find support to work from. The downgrade will occur within the hour.

August 4, Thursday, 2:42p: No need to watch the last hour of trade as equities are under pressure. Afternoon model indicates a forecast change to negative will occur within the hour. Behavior of traders suggest Fridays jobs report could be very damaging and managers are getting a leg up on the sell off to come Friday. Shorts are also helping the downward move and they will have to cover if any sign that this negative ness is short-lived.

August 4, Thursday, 10:19a: Watching the S&P 500 again today, as global sell off carries over to Wall Street. If the S&P 500 closes below March trading range support, could be indicative of deeper losses for stocks for the next couple months. Last hour of trade will be key for models this afternoon.

August 3, Wednesday, 9:34p: S&P 500: Averted a major drop below March trading-range low today. This is good for Wednesday but jobless initial claims and payroll, tomorrow and Friday, could cause the index to close well below support, at around 1256, if the data is unexpected on the negative side. We could bump around the bottom for some time if the index is able to maintain support. There seem to have been a lot of interest at the 1234 mark today, the low. That kind of move up is very positive.

August 2, Tuesday, 9:50p: Evening models indicate a break lower from today's S&P 500 close could signal more downside risk. A break above today's close could indicate the market goes back up into the March trading range. Futures show neutral to negative open for Wednesday but could end flat ahead of jobs data Thursday and Friday.

August 2, Tuesday, 9:27a: Models show a chance of a forecast downgrade to negative today. Even though data suggest a sideways moving market over the summer months, data also shows that the S&P 500 could break through the lower limit, thus a negative forecast that could as quickly revert back to caution.

August 1, Monday, 9:58a: The positive ness Monday may not last as the negative watch by S&P is still out there. Models continue to see sideways moving market until fall. Worst case is a dip of 7 to 10 percent during the remaining summer months.

July 27, Wednesday, 11:32p: Evening Barometer models indicate a forecast change to negative is possible within a couple sessions. This change could come as early as Friday or Monday depending on how Thursday's market performs. Traders could send a message tomorrow to Washington by sending stocks lower Thursday and Friday. Observed consensus is that the Government cannot and would not allow a default; Government would do whatever they had to do to avert a default. As far as downgrade by S&P, that could start a very negative chain reaction Globally and the U.S. Government know that, it would be political suicide.

July 27, Wednesday, 10:09a: Models are bone dry but could pick up this week as the deadline for the debt deal nears. The Forecast Bias is at negative and that means we are close to a forecast downgrade- stay tuned.

July 21, Thursday, 11:13p: Evening model notes that the S&P 500 close today is where it was 10 sessions ago and it might be important for the market [S&P 500] to get past the July 7, 2011 closing high. If not and Friday is a down day, we could be in for trouble next week.

July 21, Thursday, 10:06a: No action out of the models lately as markets are tied to the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate and EU debt problems. Short term pops from earnings can be expected.

July 14, Thursday, 3:34p: No change to the Bias this afternoon as yesterdays models had indicated. Until the market is able to get out of headline-chasing, markets are seen as in a range. No change in the forecast is expected.

July 13, Wednesday, 10:18p: Model data this evening [evening model run] indicates that the Bias could move off of negative to neutral as less model data is showing a major downturn this summer. Replacing the downturn [forecast] for a more sideways moving stock market as has been the case so far this year.

July 13, Wednesday, 9:41p: No action from the models. Trading is likely to continue in a trading range of SPX 1250 - 1350. See latest model.

July 7, Thursday, 10:25p: The afternoon model run upgraded the BLI to neutral. Neutral is the neutral position for the market direction indicator. That means If things continue to get better, market direction change back to the bulls would be in play.

July 7, Thursday, 3:36p: Afternoon model is about to change the BLI to neutral. This means the stock market could do somewhat better during the summer months as apposed to originally indicated.

July 6, Wednesday, 10:51p: Models are primed to upgrade either the Bias or BLI tomorrow. The positive ness continues, albeit low volume, but can't ignore the moves higher. So be on alert if we are in positive territory Thursday.

July 1, Friday, 10:03a: Flat market can be expected until the holiday is over and desks get back to full staffing. Forecast is on holiday mode and no changes expected until back [to work] on Wednesday when trading could pick up. Anything significant, models will obviously react.

June 29, Wednesday, 11:26p: Evening model run shows data for the Forecast Bias "perking up" somewhat. The picture might change when traders are at full strength after the 4th. of July. But it sure isn't out of the question for stocks to continue flat sideways trade. Not yet anyways.

June 29, Wednesday, 10:56p: What a dry spell. Model are now beginning to churn. Any more positive ness and the BLI will be going neutral. But hold on- as after the Fourth holiday when full staff on the trading desks we will see where we go. But if this keeps up (positive sessions) we could have to rethink this whole summertime market.

June 21, Tuesday, 11:16a: Tuesday morning model indicates that we could enter a sideways market, a trading range. Models are easing, somewhat, with the extended forecast of negative during the summer months. The forecast continues at caution.

June 20, Monday, 11:14p: Two mixed sessions and Monday saw a slow positive day. Models show signs that the BLI may be coming back to life- going back to neutral if the positive ness keeps up- Tuesday will be important for the bulls.

June 15, Wednesday, 10:30p: Models are getting confused? Not really. The evening model run does show volatility picking up- no surprise. Its going to be a wait and see for more session data, as up one day down the next means no direction can be identified. Forecast continues at caution with negative Bias and BLI.

June 14, Tuesday, 9:57a: Rally expected for a short period as data suggest traders will sell into rallies. Its been weeks of selling, so a short term pop can be expected. If nothing of material difference surfaces, data suggest that the S&P 500 will continue its move lower.

June 10, Friday, 3:09p: Alert: The mid afternoon model run changed the BLI to negative. Data indicates that unless the BLI gets reversed, we could be in for a long downturn, lasting until September- October timeframe.

June 10, Friday, 2:29p, Alert: Indications are that the mid afternoon model run will change the BLI to negative. Data from the pre mid afternoon run indicates that unless the BLI gets reversed within the next week or so, data suggests we could be in for a long period of a downturn, lasting until September- October timeframe.

June 10, Friday, 11:10a, Midmorning model indicates a change to the BLI to negative should occur somewhere between midday and mid afternoon. A negative BLI means, in Barometer methodology, that models have detected a turn lower for stocks that, if not reversed, means a down market for the summer period.June 9, Thursday, 9:50a, Data continues to mount showing that a market direction change is very close. Forecast could turn negative as early as Friday.

June 8, Wednesday, 10:20a, Morning Barometer model shows we are dangerously close to a BLI change to negative. A negative BLI would indicate a turn lower from theses levels for the S&P 500 index. Even with moderate loss in the major indexes today, a BLI change could occur Thursday if Thursdays market is also neutral to negative.

June 6, Monday, 10:51p, Evening model also indicates a very good chance that unless we get a very positive turnaround within the next couple sessions, we will be looking at a negative forecast. That could come near the end of the week.

June 6, Monday, 10:35p, Evening model run shows the BLI about half way to going negative. A negative BLI would indicate a direction change for the worse. About three more straight negative session would probably be enough to trigger the BLI.

June 3, Friday, 12:47p, non technical observation. Sometimes when the stock market opens down like today, chances are the major indices will slump back towards the low of the session, if during midday, stocks look to be recovering, like today.

June 3, Friday, 12:36p, noon model run indicates a pullback from midday positions (major indices) is nearly a 100 percent certainty if today ends at least where the major indexes were at midday and if Monday is a negative session as well.

June 3, Friday, 10:04a, The latest round of selling is churning the models. If this keeps up we will be looking at a Forecast change to negative. But remember, the BLI hasn't turned negative which indicates this downturn COULD be short-lived.



High-end technology devises such as the iPhone, iPad, Android, and trader platform with internet connection can load up the Forecast Chalkboard to see the latest Market Barometer model strategy.